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Is there a variation of the mended window paradigm?
Given the mended window method of assessing causality (or lack thereof) I’m curious if there are any variations of the paradigm that would force us to consider even worse possibilities as alternatives to the baseline.
The mended window method is the most commonly described method. I’m thinking of unusual possibilities such as:
The mended window analysis is flawed.
The mended window analysis ignores essential information.
The mended window analysis is over-hypothetical.
The mended window analysis is extremely hypothetical.
The mended window analysis is not even coherent.
The mended window analysis is contrary to what many people expect.
The mended window analysis is a logically fallacious tautology.
It’s easy enough to find the very counter-intuitive versions of the mended window method. Take “a new gold standard” or “bakes the data” as examples. Those are common as the games they play are “I’m really smart, so I’ll invent rules that seem reasonable but in fact are really bad.” But there are also even more obvious examples. For example, take a version of the method that does not consider the basic hypothesis as unknown. So the mended window would come with the presumption of being caused. A problem with that is the presumption of causation has to be justified.
Can we get a mended window version that is so bad we cannot even use the current, conventional method to assess causality?
This comes from very much a theoretical question. I’m not really expecting that this is in any way close to being or becoming a rule of thumb.
A:
The classic refutation of the mended window paradigm is that it’s based on the underlying assumption that ‘events’ which occur earlier are less likely to affect the behavior of the system than events which occur later. The obvious counter-example being
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